MM2 Crate Odds Calculator
Estimate the chance of at least one target pull across multiple crates.
Estimate crate odds
Enter the displayed or observed chance for the item tier you are targeting. Inputs are saved only on this device.
Murder Mystery 2 visual reference
Explore visual context for MM2 Crate Odds Calculator. Illustrations are original GamesCalculators artwork unless a separate source is credited.
What the MM2 Crate Odds Calculator calculates
The MM2 Crate Odds Calculator turns a per-crate chance into the probability of at least one target result across multiple openings. The chance is user-entered so unverified drop rates are not presented as facts.
Use the MM2 Crate Odds Calculator
- 1
Enter a verified or explicitly assumed chance per crate.
- 2
Enter planned crate count.
- 3
Apply an event factor only if current rules confirm it.
- 4
Read probability without treating failure as bad luck protection.
A result you can audit
Each section documents the calculation and the limits that apply to this specific gameplay problem.
How This MM2 Crate Odds Calculator Works01+
At-least-one probability = 1 − (1 − p)^n after the entered chance and event factor are clamped. Expected pulls = n × p.
Worked Example for the MM2 Crate Odds Calculator02+
At 1% per crate for 50 crates, probability of at least one is 1 − 0.99⁵⁰ ≈ 39.5%, while expected pulls is 0.5.
How to Use the MM2 Crate Odds Calculator Result03+
Use the probability to cap a spending plan before opening. If the acceptable chance still costs too much, the calculation has shown the risk rather than justified more attempts.
MM2 Crate Odds Calculator Accuracy and Limitations04+
The model assumes independent constant odds and does not infer pity, changing crates, duplicate protection, or undisclosed rates.
- User-entered odds may be wrong.
- Expected value is not a guarantee.
- Past misses do not alter independent odds.
MM2 calculator FAQs
Clear answers about calculations, data, independence, privacy and practical use.
Why are 50 crates at 1% only about a 39.5% chance?
Repeated chances combine through the probability of missing every crate, not by adding 1% fifty times.
Does the next MM2 crate become luckier after a miss?
Not under an independent model. Only a verified pity mechanic would change the next chance.
Where should the per-crate rate come from?
Use a current disclosed rate or clearly label a community estimate; do not present a guessed placeholder as official.